中国式现代化是中国共产党领导的社会主义现代化,既有各国现代化的共同特征,更有基于自己国情的中国特色。本文在全面深入学习党的二十大精神的基础上,以中国式现代化为中心议题贯穿新中国成立以来的历届党代会报告、历年政府工作报告和历次五年规(计)划,围绕“为什么做、怎么做、做了什么、未来如何做”四个问题展开。全面阐释“中国式现代化”提出的时代背景、中国特色社会主义现代化实践的发展历程以及新时代中国特色社会主义现代化建设的战略举措,遵循“让数据讲好中国故事”的原则,从人口规模巨大的现代化、全体人民共同富裕的现代化、物质文明和精神文明相协调的现代化、人与自然和谐共生的现代化以及走和平发展道路的现代化等维度选取22个指标,结合非平衡面板数据量化分析中国式现代化的实践历程与重大成就。历史数据显示,新中国成立以来,中国特色社会主义现代化建设持续推进,在物质文明、社会文明、精神文明、生态文明和大同文明等领域取得一系列显著成就,打破了现代化只属于西方资本主义的神话。历史经验表明,中国共产党对人民是信守承诺的,对发展是锐意进取的,对政策是延续不断的,对自然是和谐共生的,对世界是命运与共的;中国式现代化必须从自己国情出发,以人民为中心,坚持中国共产党的领导,将系统观念一以贯之。总之,中国式现代化顺应了全国人民所需和世界发展之变,以中国式现代化全面推进中华民族伟大复兴必将成功。

党的二十大报告对于全面建成社会主义现代化强国的战略安排是,从2020年到2035年基本实现社会主义现代化。因此中国经济学的理论工作者还有12年时间需要完成基本建立中国经济学知识体系这个既艰巨而又紧迫的任务。习近平总书记关于人类文明新形态的概念提出,以及推动“五个文明”协调发展的战略指示,是中国式现代化新道路的重要论述,对建构中国经济学理论与话语体系有着重要学术指导意义。中国经济学的理论特性在于,一方面具备揭示发展中国家后发经济实力赶超的经济增长一般性规律的能力,另一方面也是以实现人的全面发展和全人类可持续发展为归宿的经济学中国学派,是“一般性”与“特殊性”的高度协同。“五个文明”协调发展的重要论述从物质、政治、精神、社会、生态五个层面,锚定了中国经济学的多维度构建,体现了对经济问题的导向意识、人本关怀与意识形态的制度特性、经济发展在空间与时间维度的可持续理念,是中国经济学理论体系建设的全面性保障。

产业融合化对于中国制造业比较优势提升及其迈向全球价值链中高端具有重要意义。本文在产业融合化成本效应理论的基础上,实证检验了不同类型的服务业融入制造业对中国制造业比较优势的作用模式及其传导机制。研究发现,整体服务业和国外服务业与中国制造业的融合有效促进了中国制造业比较优势的提升,而国内服务业的融入对制造业比较优势具有显著的抑制作用,产生了“产业融合悖论”现象,这与制造业现有优势产业较为低端以及国内服务业与国外市场的衔接匹配度不足等因素有关。进一步的机制检验结果表明,国内产业融合化能够降低制造业的平均成本并提升其平均利润,而技术差距以及所处产业链位置等因素则不利于制造业部门在与国内服务业部门融合进程中受益,总效应取决于“成本效应”与“质量效应”的共同影响。应深入推进我国服务业的供给侧结构性改革,促进服务业要素自由流动与配置结构优化以提高服务产品质量,从根本上促使中国制造业将国内服务业作为其产业融合化的优先选择。

Resolving the problem of firm’s financing barrier is crucial to China’s high-quality economic development. Digital economy has undergone rapid growth in recent years, while relevant industries has played major role in boosting economic growth and mitigating adverse impacts from the Pandemic. This paper is built on the perspective of digital infrastructure, a fundamental element of digital economy, to study the relationship between digital economy and firm’s financial constraint. In theory, the improvement of digital infrastructure can facilitate the effective handling of financial information and the efficient management of firms, hence promoting the likelihood of factor sharing within and among firms. On the other hand, the perfection of digital infrastructure helps to strengthen the firm-bank connection, resulting in a more unhindered information transfer and knowledge acquirement between borrowing firms and targeting financial institutions. Based on these concerns, we expect digital infrastructure to be useful in relaxing firm’s financing constraints.

Taking the establishment of “Broadband China” exemplary cities as a natural experiment, this paper uses data from Chinese listed companies within 2005 and 2019 to empirically study the impact of digital infrastructure on firm’s financial constraint. Results show that the policy of “Broadband China” effectively lowers the indices on firm’s financial constraint, the alleviation effect is realized via adjusting external information asymmetry and reducing internal financing costs. The results are robust to an array of sensitivity tests including the parallel trend test. Moreover, the identified financial effect of “Broadband China” policy is found to be contributed mainly by private-owned firms, firms with low leverage ratio and firms in service industry, indicating that digital infrastructure reduces “financing gap” among firms with differed ownership, corrects for “attribute misallocation” embedded in the bank-firm credit process, and facilitates the digital transformation of the third industry.

Our study provides digital-economy-based solution for firm’s problem of financing barriers, while also offers empirical evidence and policy implications for the implementation of China’s “Powerful Digital Nation” strategy. While the study has illustrated the role of digital infrastructure in financially fueling firms, government investments should be more emphasized on projects with digital factors, and lower the financial barriers for firms via assorted digital based guidance. Meanwhile, firms pursuing a strong comparative advantage are encouraged to embrace the new digital era by adopting more digital-oriented development strategy.

自20世纪90年代以来,我国东北地区的经济增速明显低于全国平均水平。本文从产业结构转型的视角出发,对“东北现象”进行分析,解释东北地区经济增长相对缓慢的原因。本文认为,东北地区经济增长缓慢的背后是产业结构转型的迟缓和停滞,这既包括从农业部门向非农部门的结构转型,也包括制造业内部不同资本密集度行业之间的结构变化。在改革开放初期,东北地区的农业劳动生产率明显高于其他地区,这使东北地区错过了由符合我国总体比较优势的外向型劳动密集型产业快速扩张带来的经济增长。本文发现,上述农业劳动生产率假说可以在很大程度上解释1990～2010年东北地区人均GDP增速低于全国平均水平的现象。同时,本文还进一步通过与川渝地区的对比强化了对核心假说的论证,并对东北地区2010年之后经济增长相对缓慢的原因进行了探究。

高质量发展是中国式现代化的本质要求,是全面建设社会主义现代化国家的首要任务。基于“技术—经济”研究范式,即技术革命引致经济变革,探讨中国经济高质量发展的路径,涵盖“三个变革”,即动力变革、效率变革、质量变革。其中,动力变革包括“五个根本转向”:从要素驱动转向创新驱动、从传统要素转向数据要素、从实体空间转向虚拟空间、从物理基础设施转向数字基础设施、从物质资本投资转向人力资本投资;效率变革包括“三个精准连接”:微观层面研发、制造、营销、营运四个区段精准连接,中观层面创新链、产业链、供应链、价值链四个链条精准连接,宏观层面生产、分配、交换、消费四个环节精准连接;质量变革包括“三个深度融合”:微观层面生产者和消费者深度融合、中观层面实体经济和虚拟经济深度融合、宏观层面有为政府和有效市场深度融合。在“新技术群”的加持下,在动力变革的基础上,通过效率变革和质量变革,实现中国经济高质量发展和高速度增长相统一的新型发展模式。

稳步扩大制度型开放,是双循环新发展格局下积极推进高水平对外开放的重要战略内容,对于加快实现中国经济高质量发展具有重要意义。本文基于2007～2020年中国285个地级市面板数据,以自由贸易试验区实施片区为准自然实验,构建多时点双重差分模型,从营商环境的视角,理论分析和实证检验了制度型开放对全要素生产率的影响。研究发现,以自由贸易试验区建设为代表的制度型开放促进了城市全要素生产率的提升,并且一系列稳健性检验均支持了这一结论。机制检验表明,制度型开放通过优化营商环境,促进了城市全要素生产率的提高。异质性检验发现,制度型开放对全要素生产率的影响效应在东部沿海地区和城市规模更大的地区表现得更为明显。进一步研究发现,制度型开放主要通过推进技术效率提升从而促进了全要素生产率的提高,对技术进步的影响并不明显。本文结论为中国稳步推进制度型开放进而加快双循环新发展格局构建和经济高质量发展提供政策启示。

中国快速城市化过程中的城市收缩问题,不仅是一个人口流失问题,而且是资本和劳动力要素在城市层面进行配置后的结果。本文从“资源错配”新视角出发,利用2010～2019年287个地级市及以上的数据,系统分析了中国收缩城市和非收缩城市的资源配置情况,并且结合城市的地理区位、资源禀赋、产业结构升级以及城市行政等级情况进行了交互分析,研究发现:首先,城市收缩确实与资源在城市层面的配置有关,收缩城市的资源错配问题更加严重,而且收缩城市既存在资本配置过剩,也存在劳动力配置过剩。其次,从资源错配的角度有助于深入理解中国城市收缩在不同地区并存出现的现象,中西部是资本配置过剩问题,而东北则是劳动力配置过剩问题。最后,对于收缩城市而言,资本配置在东部、中部和西部全部过剩,劳动力配置则在东部和中部不足而在西部过剩;资本在非资源型城市的配置过剩更加严重,而劳动力在资源型城市的配置过剩更加严重;产业结构高级化水平低城市的资源错配程度要比产业结构高级化水平高的城市更严重;低等级城市的资源错配程度要比高等级城市更严重。本文对于中国解决城市收缩、城市可持续发展以及城市资源配置等问题富有启发意义。解决中国城市收缩问题是一个系统工程,需要根据不同城市的地理区位、资源禀赋、产业升级能力以及城市等级等因素,合理优化资本和劳动力这两种要素的配置。

2022年,在世界格局加速演变、乌克兰危机升级、全球通胀升温、美联储货币政策剧烈调整等复杂多变的外部环境下,面对国内疫情反复和“三重压力”等挑战,中国经济在压力中迎难而进,总体呈现V型走势。2023年是全面贯彻落实党的二十大精神的开局之年,是实施“十四五”规划承前启后的关键一年,也是全面建设社会主义现代化国家开局起步的重要一年,做好经济工作具有重要意义。2023年,宏观政策需继续保持足够的逆周期调节力度,促进经济恢复更加稳固、更加充分,推动经济运行整体好转。建议积极的财政政策要加力提效,进一步优化工具选项,有效对冲私人部门需求不足缺口,促进产出缺口收敛;稳健的货币政策要精准有力,进一步发挥好总量和结构双重功能,为实体经济降低融资成本和减轻债务负担;提质加力就业优先政策,推动解决结构性就业矛盾;同时,要注重加强各类政策之间协调配合。加大财政货币政策对产业升级和科技创新的支持力度,形成推动高质量发展的合力。建议2023年抓好以下重点工作任务:一是因时因势优化疫情防控措施,更好统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展;二是稳定预期提振市场主体信心,着力扩大民间投资和居民消费;三是在化解风险的同时构建长效机制,促进房地产市场健康平稳发展;四是加快完善科技创新体系,提升国家创新体系效能;五是增强产业链供应链韧性,提高现代化水平和国际竞争力;六是加快重点领域改革攻坚步伐,深化对外开放应对外部挑战;七是深入推进区域协调发展和新型城镇化,增强城乡区域发展平衡性协调性;八是积极稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和,促进经济社会发展绿色转型;九是着力稳定重点群体就业,促进城乡居民收入增长;十是统筹发展与安全,做好重点领域风险防范化解工作。

人才是社会经济发展的第一资源、第一动能。当前我国西部地区人才匮乏问题仍很突出,难以适应促进区域协调发展的目标要求。本文从企业创新的视角考察在经济相对落后的西部地区,高层次人才引进政策如何有效落地。研究发现,高层次人才引进政策对西部地区企业创新具有显著的促进作用。进一步研究表明,政府“高层次人才引进政策”中涉及“常驻支持”、“个人发展”及“经费支持”的激励措施对企业创新具有显著的促进作用。当政策着力于消除人才的后顾之忧、将人才个人发展与地区经济发展相结合,并为人才提供配套科研资金支持时,人才对企业创新会产生持续促进作用。此外,随着西部各个地市经济发展水平、教育人文环境、居住环境和市场化程度等制度环境因素的优化,人才引进政策对企业创新的促进作用日益显著。本文将为政府制定合理政策消除西部地区人才困境、促进区域技术进步和经济高质量发展提供参考。

消费和投资是内需的两大组成部分，理解家庭消费储蓄行为对于实施扩大内需战略具有重要意义。本文基于生命周期假说提出了一个家庭消费—储蓄决策的模型，刻画了中国家庭消费支出与户主年龄、家庭人均收入、人均净资产之间的关系，并实证验证了这种关系。本文发现，由于受教育水平的提高、教育回报率的提高和工作经验回报率的下降，中国家庭人均收入—年龄分布曲线峰值提前到了25～35岁。本文的实证研究表明，这种收入—年龄分布是解释家庭储蓄率与户主年龄的U型曲线关系（中年户主家庭储蓄率“凹陷”）的主要因素。在控制教育、医疗负担和多代合居等潜在遗漏变量后，本文的解释仍然成立。基于微观模型，本文构建宏观估计方程发现：收入增速下降是2010年以来储蓄率下降的主因；在收入增速等其他变量不变的条件下，人口老龄化导致储蓄率上升。

This paper focuses on the losses in total factor productivity (TFP) due to capital misallocation to dispersion in firm-specific borrowing costs in China. That is to say, the private-owned enterprises (POEs) face higher borrowing costs than the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with lower productivity. For one thing the differences in borrowing costs across firms may attributable to the relatively undeveloped financial markets in China. Specifically, there are frictions between banks and entrepreneurs as well as banks and depositors which arising from information asymmetry in China's credit markets. From the credit demand side, since the default cost generates a borrower spread, POEs whose financing choices are affected by the higher default costs face higher lending rates than SOEs with the lower default costs. Thus different entrepreneurs differ in their default costs lead to borrower spread differ across sectors , which means that the financial demand frictions lead to reductions in TFP through capital misallocation. From the credit supply-side, the financial intermediary may divert a fraction of assets leads to an endogenous the aggregate amount of credit loan constraint for banks which generates a lender spread. Thus the total loans funded will depend positively on the banks’ own net worth, and the banks are more unwilling to extend credit to POEs due to the higher default costs. Hence, the financial supply frictions would exacerbate the capital misallocation arising from financial demand frictions. For another thing, government implicit guarantees may be another important determinant of differences in borrowing costs across firms. To achievement some policy goals such as stable economic growth, the production decision of SOEs should be countercyclical. So the SOEs generally receive some preferential credit treatment through the government guarantees. That is to say, the government provides implicit guarantees for bank loan to SOEs and bails the potentially defaulting SOEs out and pays off the loan partly or fully. Thus SOEs’ borrowing costs have been affected less by the financial factors which exacerbates capital misallocation.

Therefore the paper firstly incorporates government-guaranteed bank loans and double financial frictions into a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) with production heterogeneity wherein both bank and entrepreneurial leverage matter for the cost of external funds of nonfinancial firms borrowing from banks. By analyzing the determinants of external financing premium including borrower spread and lender spread, it has been found that: Firstly, the model economy can better account for structure of economy and business cycle in the China's actual economy. Secondly, changes in financial frictions induce heterogeneous responses capital wedges across firms, which reduces the efficiency of capital allocation across firms and aggregate TFP, and SOEs have been affected less by the financial factors since the government provides guarantees for their debt which exacerbate capital misallocation. Thirdly, the impacts of the adverse shocks on the real economy have been double enhanced through linkage of bank and entrepreneurial leverage, while the financial supply frictions constrains bank’s ability to provide loans and thus exacerbate capital misallocation through reducing the available bank loans for POEs. Additionally, the model endogenously generates the counter-cyclicality of capital misallocation. Fourthly, during the economic downturn, the extent of capital misallocation will be exacerbated since the conditions of access to credit for POEs are more difficult and the production decision of SOEs is countercyclical.

The contributions in this paper can be summarized as follows: Firstly, the paper constructs a DSGE model which integrates government-guaranteed bank loans and double financial frictions into a unifi ed research framework for the first time. The government-guaranteed bank loans are adopted by the research Group of Operations Office of the People’s Bank of China (2017), the double financial frictions are constructed by adding a moral hazard problem between bankers and households along the lines of Gertler and Karadi (2011) to the Bernanke et al. (1999) financial accelerator model, and then the two frictional associations are constructed by using the bank credit scale variable as a link. Secondly, from the perspective of comparative static and dynamic analysis, the paper inspects the mechanism of the losses in TFP through capital and credit misallocation arising from the double financial frictions and implicit government guarantees. Thirdly, in the context of the economic downturn, the paper inspects the mechanism of capital misallocation by the conditions of access to credit for POEs are more difficult and the production decision of SOEs is countercyclical.

Finally, this paper suggests that, to solve the capital misallocation arising from imperfect financial markets, the government should to alleviates the information asymmetry among different economic agents including banks and entrepreneurs as well as banks and depositors; To solve the capital misallocation arising from the government-guaranteed bank loans, the government should to build the system of the state-contingent government-guaranteed bank loans to SOE firms on business cycle.

China is experiencing a critical stage of accelerated urbanization. The acceleration of urbanization and associated industrialization has become a key challenge for China to realize carbon emission peaking targets on schedule. Therefore, understanding the characteristics of China’s urbanization process, clarifying the impacts of various factors related to economic structural change on the evolution trend of carbon emissions, and identifying the carbon reduction pathway coupled with economic growth can provide prominent decision references to optimize carbon reduction policy and realize carbon emission peaking. To investigate the complex impact of urbanization on carbon emissions, this paper measures the urbanization level from two perspectives of population urbanization rate and urbanization pace, and then introduce the urbanization level as the background variable into the STIRPAT model to constructure a latent class model. Based on the above model, we discuss the dynamic impacts of urbanization and other key determinants on carbon emissions. Moreover, we design four kinds of urbanization backgrounds and three simulation scenarios to analyze the feasible pathway for peaking carbon emissions in China by employing the Monte Carlo simulation method.

The results show that GDP per capita, population density, energy intensity, and energy consumption structure have signifi cant promoting effects on carbon emissions, indicating that China’s current economic growth pattern is still energy intensive in general. From a dynamic perspective, the promoting effects of some determinants on carbon emissions tend to be weak with the improvement of urbanization level. In detail, the promoting effects of population density and energy consumption structure gradually decrease during the process of urbanization. Besides, the increase in the ratio of foreign direct investment to GDP can promote carbon emissions in regions with lower urbanization level, but suppress carbon emissions in most areas with higher urbanization levels. Moreover, only in regions with lower urbanization level, the increase in proportion of secondary industry results in more carbon emissions. The results of the scenario analysis demonstrate that under the historical benchmark scenario and the policy-oriented scenario, it is diffi cult for China to peak carbon emissions before 2030. In the context of technological breakthrough scenario and four kinds of urbanization evolution, China can peak carbon emissions at different time before 2030 with diffi cult peaking values. In addition, under the background of different levels of urbanization, there are apparent differences among the peaking pathways of carbon emissions. Specifi cally, China is more likely to peak carbon emissions under the higher urbanization level and the urbanization mode of “slow fi rst and then urgent”. Based on our fi ndings, it is suggested that a stable urbanization development strategy should be formulated, and the government should be committed to improving the low-carbon technological innovation capacity, to achieve the carbon emission peaking target as scheduled.

The contributions of this paper are as follows. First, the urbanization level is introduced as the background variable into the latent class model aiming at revealing carbon emission determinants, which can overcome the logical defect of general regression model in identifying the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions. Thus, this paper contributes to a better understanding of the impacts of urbanization on carbon emissions. Meanwhile, the model we construct can be used for reference to explore the real infl uence of various factors with background characteristics on the explained variable. Second, based on the scenario simulation analysis, this paper has a deep insight into the evolution tracks of carbon emissions under different economic and environmental policies and urbanization stages, thereby presenting the priorities of carbon reduction policy and the optimal carbon emission peaking pathway. Consequently, this paper could provide important theoretical basis and practical references for reasonable formulation and effective implementation of China’s carbon reduction policy.

 The "China's economic miracle" under the leadership of the Communist Party of China has always been an important topic of academic research at home and abroad, and it is the centralized embodiment and significant practical innovation of the modernization of the economic governance capacity of the Communist Party of China. Many studies have explored the causes of "China's economic miracle" from the aspects of political system, economic system, fiscal and tax system or cultural factors. The Communist Party of China has formed an efficient leadership system and governance model through continuous exploration in long-term practice.To understand the great achievements of contemporary China's economic development, it is necessary to deeply investigate the unique governance system under the leadership of the Communist Party of China. In view of this, under the framework of longitudinal governance between central and local governments, this paper summarizes the economic governance model with "target responsibility system" as the main feature, aiming to provide a new perspective for understanding "China's economic miracle".

First of all, this paper summarizes the concept and structural characteristics of "target responsibility system". "Target responsibility system" is a system which takes party and government branch organization as operation carrier and upholds the principle of equality of power and responsibility and benefit, the central government acts as the originator of the "downward decomposition" of economic and social goals, then local governments and social institutions at all levels decompose and implement the goals as the "upward responsible" contractors under administrative constraints, political or economic incentives, finally coordinate and unified to complete the targets of the system. In the system of "target responsibility", the relationship between the central government and the local government is "contract-contracting", which includes not only the top-down "constraint" effect, but also the bottom-up "incentive" feature. From the point of view of structure characteristics, the responsibility system of objectives can be divided into three main steps: setting objectives, decomposing objectives and assessing objectives. The steps of goal making, goal decomposition and goal assessment are not only gradient and gradual, but also interactive, thus forming a coordinated and unified closed loop system.

Secondly, from the perspectives of democratic centralism, Chinese-style decentralization, vertical governance system and socialist market economy, this paper analyzes the institutional basis of the effective operation of "target responsibility system" under Chinese model. First, the political foundation of democratic centralism determines the binding nature of target responsibility system. Democratic centralism ensures that the overall objectives of the central government are extended locally in a highly organized form wbhich has significant vertical constraints on local government. Second, "top-down" vertical governance ensures the cohesion of the target accountability system. Top-down performance appraisal motivates local governments to take on the central government's targets. Third, the fiscal incentive under economic decentralization strengthens the effectiveness of target responsibility system. The tax-sharing reform fully aroused the enthusiasm of local government to carry out local economic construction. Fourth, the socialist market economy system with Chinese characteristics has stimulated the creativity of target responsibility system. China's market economy system in which public ownership plays a dominant role and various forms of ownership develop side by side not only ensures that the goals set by the central and local governments can effectively play a leading role, but also gives full play to the initiative of various market entities.

Finally, this paper further analyzes the main mechanism of local government promoting economic growth through "self-motivation effect" and "yardstick competition effect" in the "top-down" target-responsibility management system. Under the vertical constraint led by the central government's target, the economic growth target is closely related to the assessment and promotion of officials. This pressure assessment system increases the government departments' pursuit of economic growth target and strengthens the "self-motivation" of local officials. In addition, competition among local governments is an important source of China's economic growth miracle. Local officials will spare no effort in economic construction and pursue higher economic growth rates in order to win the promotion tournament. Therefore, the pattern of regional horizontal competition formed under the target responsibility system not only ensures the effectiveness of the "downward decomposition" of the target, but also ensures the completion of the economic growth target.

This study provides a new idea for deepening the institutional reform of the governance relationship between central and local governments, and provides policy inspiration for the high-quality development of China's economy in the next step. First, scientific design of economic development objectives, give full play to the leading function of "target responsibility system". While the GDP-focused competition model of local officials has significantly boosted economic growth in past stages of development, it has also led to adverse effects such as overcapacity and redundant construction. Therefore, the central government should not only give full play to the overall function and leading role of "target responsibility system" when setting economic development goals, but also avoid the phenomenon of excessive overloading under the vertical management system. Second, we will promote the reform of the local government evaluation system and improve the evaluation index system. Regional performance will no longer be measured solely by GDP. Environmental protection, people's livelihood, culture and security will be taken into more comprehensive consideration, so that performance evaluation will not be based on total quantity, speed and scale, but on the quality, mode and sustainability of development. Third, we need to standardize the relationship between government revenue and expenditure at different levels and improve the governance mechanism between central and local governments. Since the tax-sharing reform, the divergence of financial resources and authority between central and local governments has intensified the function dislocation and behavior distortion of local governments. Therefore, it is necessary to speed up the construction of local tax system and enrich the revenue source of local government, and transfer part of expenditure responsibility appropriately. On this basis, the local government's intervention in market economic activities should be furtherly restricted, so as to reverse the distortion of local government's behavior under the central government-led incentive mode.

如何理解产权塑造及其对市场发育的影响是经济学的核心话题，然而相应的经验证据并不充分。本文使用一套基于中国雷州半岛独特“祖宗地”现象的调查数据，对于农地制度演化如何塑造产权进而影响市场发育进行了探讨。首先考察样本村庄的土地制度演化史，通过提炼制度特征得到四类制度代表型：湄潭实验组、全国典型组、良序拟私有制组、失序拟私有制组。其次，使用一个政府管制与自发秩序权衡的理论框架，分析四类不同制度演化所塑造的产权状态。最后，实证研究结果表明，产权稳定性确实是政府管制和自发秩序互动的结果，为二者的力量权衡所塑造；产权清晰性却是政府管制的单调函数，即越管制越清晰；产权清晰性对于土地流转市场范围的扩大具有支撑作用；产权稳定性对于土地流转市场的深化而言必不可少。

为实现党的二十大擘画的宏伟蓝图,需要努力建构中国自主知识体系。中国经济学学科体系已有100多年的历史,历经了四个阶段。构建中国特色经济学学科体系的价值取向应坚持以马克思主义为指导、坚持以人民为中心、坚持以服务中国实践为基点、坚持问题导向、坚持传承前人学说和坚持各门经济学科的融会协调;提高中国经济学学科的学术水平需要解决好学术概念、经济原理、历史知识、文献整理和学术争鸣等问题;提高中国经济学学科的话语权,应以讲好中国故事为基点,在内容、方式和传导上发力。

Market-oriented reform is the mainstream of China’s economic reform and basic force for sustainable economic growth. In the process of China’s marketization reform, there has always been a prominent phenomenon that the market-oriented reform process of factor market lags behind that of the product market, which named as China’s asymmetric marketization reform. Chinese scholars argue that this phenomenon is the unreasonable intervention or control of Chinese governments at different levels, which has led to the imbalance and distortion of market supply and demand in key factor markets, distorting the pricing mechanism of key factors and resulting in a negative effect on China’s economic development. Based on the typical facts of the market-oriented reform and regional economic development level, this paper constructs a partial static equilibrium model, and proposes that the lag of factor marketization relative to product marketization would lead to the decline of the enterprise’s ability to obtain profits, and weaken the enterprise’s innovation investment.

To test above hypothesis, this paper uses a reasonable instrumental variable of the asymmetric marketization effect in China’s provinces and regions. From a historical point of view, this paper constructs instrumental variable by using the proportion of the employment of Chinese owned and collective enterprises in the labor force of provinces in 1978. First, we found that the robustness experience obtained from the micro enterprise level of the manufacturing sector in this paper is that China’s asymmetric marketization reform had a signifi cant inhibitory effect on the innovation investment of micro enterprises. More specifi cally, every one percentage increase in the lag of the factor marketization relative to the product marketization would cause the per capita total innovation investment and per capita private innovation investment of manufacturing enterprises to decrease by 1.200 and 1.202 percentage points respectively. Second, compared with other ownership enterprises, the innovation investment of state-owned enterprises would not be affected by the inhibitory effect of asymmetric marketization reform. Third, relative to R&D outsourcing, asymmetric marketization reform has a more significant inhibitory effect on independent innovation in China. Forth, asymmetric marketization reform has a signifi cant inhibitory effect on both technology import and reabsorption. Last, the mechanism analysis reveals that the inhibitory effect is mainly caused by the high monopoly price squeezing the profit of the industrial sector that resulted by the government’s intervention or control of the factor market. In addition, this paper also tests the alternative hypothesis. Some scholars believe that China’s asymmetric market-oriented reform would lead to adverse selection and moral hazard behavior in the process of innovation factor resource allocation, and inhibit the innovation activities of enterprises. It finds that in areas where asymmetric marketization is more serious, the provision of government innovation subsidies can promote the innovation investment of enterprises in the region.

It is considered that the paper added a value to existing literature in follow two aspects. First, it explores how the asymmetric marketization between the process of factor market and product market affect the enterprise’s innovation investment. Second, it reveals that the asymmetric marketization would squeeze the profit obtained from production. Third, the potential direction of China’s market-oriented reform in the long run is to accelerate the measures to promote the reform in key factors market and promote the market-reform of factor prices by realizing the free fl ow of factors.

 “Demographic dividend” has played a very important role in China’s rapid economic growth in the past. However, China has started the process of population aging in the 21st century. By 2010, China’s economic growth has appeared an “inflection point” from high speed to medium and low speed. Does this mean that China has lost its demographic dividend?  

As a country with a large population, how to make full use of human resources and how to sustain the demographic dividend has become a crucial practical problem. This paper aims to demonstrate the existence of “demographic health dividend” and it is an important source of promoting economic growth. The traditional connotation of “demographic dividend” means that the demographic structure dominated by the “quantity” of labor force provides favorable conditions for economic growth. In this connotation, the factor of “quality” of labor force is not considered.  

Obviously, the effect of labor force with the same quantity but different quality on economic growth must be different. Among the indicators to measure the quality of labor force, health has special importance. Without health, other indicators for evaluating population quality have no practical significance. Therefore, this paper puts forward the population health factor as a relatively independent problem, that is, the problem of “demographic health dividend”.

By establishing a mathematical economic model containing total output, national savings rate and demographic structure variables, and using the method of theoretical derivation and econometric analysis, this paper makes an in-depth research on the relationship between demographic health dividend and economic growth. The research found that in the process of economic growth, there is not only “demographic dividend”, but also “demographic health dividend”, in which the demographic health dividend is composed of labor health dividend and elderly health dividend.

In particular, this paper deduces the formula of the relationship between national savings rate and demographic structure, explains the connotation of demographic dividend mathematically based on this formula, and proves theoretically that improving demographic health level has the effect of continuing demographic dividend; It is proved mathematically that demographic health dividend is the source of economic growth, which enriches the theory of economic growth. This paper demonstrates that developing demographic health dividend is an important way to actively deal with population aging meanwhile it has an important practical significance of implementing the “healthy China” strategy. Finally, policy suggestions are put forward. The conclusion of this paper shows that the characteristics of China’s economic growth are closely related to the characteristics of China’s demographic structure.

党的二十大报告指出高质量发展是全面建设社会主义现代化国家的首要任务,而企业全要素生产率的提高是进一步优化资源配置、转变经济增长方式的重要内容,绿色金融发展则是提高企业全要素生产率、实现经济高质量发展的内在要求。因此,本文通过构建绿色金融发展水平综合指标,基于2007～2020年中国A股非金融类上市公司数据,实证分析了绿色金融对企业全要素生产率的影响。研究发现:地区绿色金融发展水平与企业全要素生产率之间存在倒“U”形关系,该基准结论在一系列稳健性检验后依然成立;当前中国绿色金融发展水平均值尚未突破拐点,推动绿色金融发展将有利于提高企业全要素生产率;技术创新和资源配置是绿色金融对企业全要素生产率产生倒“U”形影响的重要渠道;在不同环保属性企业、民营企业和东中部地区中倒“U”形关系显著,但绿色金融对环保企业影响更大,而对国有企业影响甚微,对西部和东北地区仅存在正向线性影响。这些独特的经验发现为今后绿色金融的发展和政策制定提供了有价值的参考依据。

Moral hazard issues arising from health insurance have been heatedly discussed among researchers and policy-makers. The focus of the existing literature has been on so-called “ex post moral hazard”, i.e., conditional on one’s health status, the responsiveness of an individual’s demand for healthcare to the out-of-pocket prices (Pauly, 1968). By contrast, another type of moral hazard (ex ante moral hazard), namely health insurance alters the behavior of an individual’s health investments, has received less attention in studies (Einav and Finkelstein, 2018). Following the mainstream literature, this paper also abbreviates “ex postmoral hazard” as “moral hazard”. In theory, there is no clear prediction on whether or not health insurance will increase the utilization and the costs of healthcare. A series of randomized experiments [e.g., Aron-Dine et al. (2013), Finkelstein et al. (2012), Manning et al. (1987), etc.] as well as some quasi-natural experiment studies [e.g., Chandra et al. (2010), Chandra et al. (2014), Shigeoka (2014), etc.] have provided compelling evidence of the existence of moral hazard in health insurance. Meanwhile, some studies also tend to characterize the magnitude of moral hazard by the price elasticity of demand for healthcare [e.g., Cutler and Zeckhauser (2000), Feng et al. (2020), Zhao et al. (2015), etc.]. Their estimates of price elasticity are about -0.1 to -0.7.

Therefore, it can be seen that the evidence about the magnitude and nature of moral hazard in health insurance is still limited, though its existence has reached a consensus. In developed countries, such as the U.S. and Europe, largescale health insurance expansion shocks have been rare after the 1980s. In China, however, emerging health insurance reforms and unique data provide researchers opportunities to answer new questions about moral hazard in health insurance. Based on this, this paper shows how to use China’s scenarios and data to define and discuss four research questions, which include: (1) whether monetary costs are the only source of healthcare costs; (2) whether the monetary costs of healthcare (out-of-pocket prices) faced by individuals are marginal prices(spot prices) or average prices (future prices); (3) how to distinguish moral hazard from income effects; (4) how large is the general equilibrium effect of health insurance expansion.

When talking about healthcare costs, the existing literature tends to focus only on monetary costs, without attention to time costs. In order to explore whether the time cost will affect the demand for healthcare (Question 1), we use the fact that the statutory retirement age for men in China is 60 and Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance (UEBMI) data of male workers aged 50-70 in a city, to construct regression discontinuity models. Preliminary results show that at age 60, there is a signifi cant increase in the rate of hospitalization for men. This implies that the reduction of time costs resulted from retirement will increase the individual's demand for medical care, and thus the researchers should incorporate time costs into analyses to gain more accurate estimate of the price elasticity of demand for healthcare.

Question 2 is raised from nonlinear health insurance contracts. In order to alleviate the overuse of medical care, typical health insurance contracts often incorporate deductibles, cost limits, and other components, and also reset reimbursement annually based on a calendar year, which make patient cost sharing become a nonlinear function of the cumulative amount of healthcare spending (over the covered year). Because of it, when estimating the price elasticity, researchers need to consider whether the insured response to the spot price (i.e., current out-of-pocket price) or the future price (i.e., expected yearend price). At present, few studies can discuss the patients’ response to spot price and future price at the same time as well as compare their magnitudes. We fill this gap by designing two quasi-natural experiments, with the help of the policy for reaching the deductible in outpatient services and the accounting year reset policy of the UEBMI insured in a China’s city. In Experiment 1, only the spot price changes without changes in the future price, while in Experiment 2, both the spot price and the future price change simultaneously, which helps us jointly estimate these two price elasticities. Results show that under the nonlinear contracts, individuals respond differently to different prices: the spot price elasticity of the retired workers is about -0.09 to -0.14, whereas the future price elasticity is about -0.92 to -1.01. This suggests that researchers should incorporate individuals, dynamic incentive responses into the analysis of health insurance.

When observing the phenomenon that falling out-of-pocket prices lead to the increase in healthcare spending, most current studies generally treat it as the evidence of moral hazard in health insurance. However, the impact of price reduction on the consumption includes substitution effects and income effects. The so-called moral hazard in health insurance is the substitution effect, that is, the social deadweight loss due to price distortions. Instead, the income effect might relax the individual's liquidity constraint, which is social benefits. In order to distinguish the moral hazard effect from the potential income effect (Question 3), we exploit the changes in inpatient reimbursement and the changes in pension to construct two quasi-natural experiments, and thus decomposing the traditional price elasticity of demand for healthcare into moral hazard (deadweight loss) and the income effect (social benefit).Results from regression discontinuity design and event study approach show that, the substitution effect accounts for about 58% of the price elasticity, while the income effect accounts for about 42%. This implies that the traditional price elasticity of healthcare demand might overestimate the magnitude of moral hazard in health insurance. When assessing the welfare effects of health insurance reform, researchers should take both the social costs of moral hazard and the benefits of income effects into consideration.

In Question 4, this paper discusses the general equilibrium effect of health insurance. The existing literature often uses a partial equilibrium framework, that is, given the entire medical market remains unchanged, to discuss the impact of health insurance expansion or changes in the reimbursement rate on various outcomes. However, health insurance reforms might affect individuals’ decision making (demand side) as well as providers’ behavior (supply side). We evaluate the impact of China’s New Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS) expansion, and find that it not only affects individuals’ healthcare utilization and health outcomes, but also has significant impacts on the public hospitals’ income and expenditure, and increases the number of start-ups and patent applications in the pharmaceutical industry. These preliminary results suggest that the impacts of health insurance on providers’ behavior cannot be ignored. In future studies, researchers should broaden their analytical perspectives and further explore the general equilibrium effects of health insurance.

We believe that Chinese researchers can dig out newer research questions as well as fresher analytical perspectives by combining Chinese reality with big data and the latest empirical approaches. China’s stories and experiences will boost the development of literature on moral hazard in health economics and provide valuable lessons for the improvement of the health financing system in China and other countries.

Since the great Reform and Opening up in 1978, China has swiftly transformed from a traditional, closed, planned economy to a modern, open, market-oriented economy within a very short period of time, and has become well-known “world factory” and “the home to multinational enterprises”. This paper argues that Chinese diasporas and the enterprises they run have played an important role in facilitating the above transformation in mainland China. The main content of this article is as follows:

First, this paper reviews the past literature and finds that the existing research on Chinese diaspora-run enterprises (DREs) are mainly qualitative while quantitative ones are largely insufficient; the datasets used in previous research on Chinese DREs have following weaknesses: small sample size, short time coverage, outdatedness of sample, indirectness of measurement, poor representativeness of industry and scale of the firm, and shortage in variables etc.; the research on China's FDI have not yet paid attention to the particularity and importance of diaspora direct investment (DDI) among FDI.

Second, this paper summarizes the role of DREs as “pioneers” and “bridges” during development process of a regional industrial cluster based on a case study of Nan'An stone-making industry: in the early stage of industrial development, DREs overcame entry barriers with the help of lineage networks, so as to overcome the capital bottleneck of the local industrial development; after entering, DREs shared information from overseas markets to overcome market demand bottlenecks for local industries; in the later stage of industrial development, DREs helped foster a group of competitive local industrial bases through demonstration and outsourcing, resulting in the formation and growth of local industrial clusters.

Third, using a novel database constructed by Chen et al. (2022), this paper depicts the temporal, spatial, industrial and organizational characteristics of entry of the universe of all DREs in China since the Reform and Opening up. Although the proportion of DREs among all foreign enterprises showed a declining trend, but DREs has always constituted a dominant share of foreign firms in China, and there were obvious differences between DREs and non-diaspora foreign firms in terms of entry strategy, location choice, industry selection and many other dimensions. Thus, DREs and non-diaspora foreign firms may had produced completely different spillover effect.

Fourth, this paper shows some possible spillover effects of DREs during the era of Reform and Opening up via quantitative evidence including: preceding the entry of domestic private enterprises and non-diaspora foreign enterprises, promoting local participation in international trade, improving local business environment, and guiding the modernization of domestic enterprises, etc.

Finally, under international comparison, this paper derives policy implications from China’s experience with use of DDI as catalyst for local industrial development, discusses the avenue for future research, and calls for more scholarly attention on the role of DDI in promoting industrialization of developing countries.

在当前经济政策不确定性不可避免且消费对我国经济发展愈发重要的背景下，急需厘清经济政策不确定性和消费之间的关系。本文基于2012年、2014年、2016年、2018年中国省级经济政策不确定性指数以及CFPS数据，分析了经济政策不确定性与居民消费之间的关系。研究表明：经济政策不确定性会明显抑制居民家庭消费，该结论在一系列稳健性检验后依旧成立；机制分析表明，经济政策不确定性通过降低家庭收入、造成收入的不确定性、延迟消费决策以及收紧流动性约束来降低家庭消费；异质性分析表明，经济政策不确定性对家庭消费的负向冲击在经济发展水平较高、金融发展水平较低、社会保障程度较低以及家庭人力资本水平较低样本中更加显著；进一步地，经济政策不确定性会显著降低基础型消费和发展型消费，但对享受型消费和整体消费结构的影响并不明显。本文的研究为政府在经济政策不确定性背景下实施精确的刺激消费政策提供了理论和现实依据。

在数字经济时代，乡村振兴需要数字技术提供引擎和发展动力。农村电商作为数字经济融入中国农村的重要形式，对农民收入的影响如何？本文采用2012～2018年的地级市面板数据，利用淘宝村出现的时空差异构建双重差分模型评估农村电商对农民收入的影响。研究发现，“地级市内有无淘宝村”“地级市内淘宝村数量”均具有显著的增收效应。对于一个淘宝村数量处于平均数（18个）的地级市来说，其农民年均可支配收入比没有淘宝村的地级市高642元，相当于农民年均可支配收入平均值的5%；此外，淘宝村使得农民消费支出提高315元，相当于农民年均可支配收入平均值的2.4%，有利于推动经济内循环。异质性分析发现，淘宝村对初始农业生产率低、城镇潜在市场大的地区的影响更大。机制检验发现，淘宝村的增收效应主要源于对创业的拉动作用。本文结论表明农村电商可以激发农村地区的经济活力和内生增长动力，是全面推进乡村振兴的重要抓手。

如何从政策层面有效推动企业数字创新是值得关注的议题。政府数字关注作为政府将数字经济发展纳入决策议程以及提升数字经济资源配置效率的重要设计,是否会对企业数字创新产生重要影响?本文在分析政府数字关注影响企业数字创新内在机理的基础上,利用2001～2020年中国沪深A股上市公司数据系统考察了政府数字关注对企业数字创新的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,政府数字关注显著促进了企业数字创新,这一促进效应在技术密集型行业、小规模企业、非国有企业以及成长期和成熟型的企业组别中尤为明显。机制检验表明,企业数字化转型强化了政府数字关注对企业数字创新的促进作用;且政府数字关注通过增加政府补助、投资和企业研发投入等途径对企业数字创新产生影响。本文可为充分发挥政府数字关注对企业数字创新的促进效应,激发数字创新活力,进而为实现数字创新驱动发展提供有益参考。

党的二十大报告指出,要加快发展数字经济,促进数字经济和实体经济深度融合。在数字经济时代,企业的核心价值更多的是以无形、数字化、难以货币化计量的资产存在。企业大量的数字资产是否具有价值相关性是本文的研究主题。本文将手机App活跃用户行为数据作为数字资产,收集了国内排名前2000名的手机App应用中活跃用户数、App启动次数、App使用时长等相关用户行为数据,从数字资产作为公司管理层的私有信息理论出发,对数字资产与企业季度营业收入之间的关系进行了检验。研究发现,App启动次数和使用时长同期季度增长率与同期的季度营业收入存在显著正向关系,说明了数字资产与企业核心财务指标之间关系的适当性;进一步,App启动次数和使用时长同期季度增长率能够预测从t+1到t+3期的季度营业收入,说明数字资产作为私有信息的盈余预测性。此外,本文从互联网业务依赖度、信息透明度、App付费与免费的对比以及品牌声誉的对比角度对上述结果进一步分析。本文的研究发现对于理解数字资产在价值投资领域的重要性具有重要意义。

本文以2010～2019年的国有上市企业为样本,基于行政干预和内部人控制的双重视角,考察了国有资本授权经营制度改革对国有企业融资效率的影响。研究发现,国有资本授权经营制度改革对提升国有企业融资效率具有显著的促进作用。进一步研究显示,减少行政干预、抑制内部人控制是国有资本授权经营制度改革提升国有企业融资效率的重要机制;区分所有权结构后,上述促进作用在非国有股东持股比例较低的企业中更显著;区分行业竞争程度后,上述促进作用在行业竞争程度较低的企业中更显著。本文丰富了国有资本授权经营的经济后果研究以及国有企业融资治理研究,为提升国有企业资本配置效率和完善相关制度提供了现实启示。

以数字化来推动资本跨区域自由流动和优化配置是加快建设全国统一大市场的重要抓手。本文基于2014～2019年中关村海淀科技园企业数据集,运用多期DID模型,从企业资本跨地区流动的视角,实证研究数字技术应用对全国统一大市场建设的影响及其内在机制。研究发现,数字技术对资本跨区域流动具有显著的促进作用,且随着数字技术应用程度的加深而增强,说明数字化有助于推动全国统一大市场建设。机制分析发现,数字技术通过降低交易成本、优化资源配置、降低代理成本以及缓解融资约束进而促进企业资本跨区域流动和全国统一大市场建设。进一步分析发现,相较于国有企业和制造业,数字化的推动作用在非国有企业和服务业更为明显,同时,较好的营商环境起到正向促进作用。本文为更好地发挥数字化在助力全国统一大市场建设中的重要作用提供了经验证据。

数字经济已经成为驱动中国经济高质量发展的重要引擎，在中国数字经济进入与实体经济不断融合深化的新发展阶段，建立科学的指标体系测度中国数字经济发展水平，对于相关政策的制定具有重要意义。本文基于数字化基础设施、数字化技术、数字化交易三个维度构建综合评价体系，利用全局熵值法测算2013～2019年中国30个省份的数字经济发展水平，采用Dagum基尼系数及Kernel核密度估计探究数字经济的空间演化特征，最后运用空间杜宾模型对数字经济的影响因素进行识别。研究结果表明，中国数字经济发展水平总体上呈现明显的提升态势，“东高西低”的空间分布格局显著；中国数字经济地区间差异呈缩小趋势，区域间数字经济发展水平差异大于区域内差异，是造成数字经济发展水平空间分异的主要成因，东部和西部区域内数字经济发展水平存在显著的梯度差异；从影响因素来看，数字经济发展水平存在正向空间自相关性，地区经济增长水平、财政支出水平和贸易开放度的提升有利于提高数字经济发展水平。

On October 10 in 2010, the State Council of the People’s Republic of China issued the “Decision of the State Council on Accelerating the Cultivation and Development of Strategic Emerging Industries”. The document indicates that strategic emerging industries have important value and act as leading role in the overall economic and social situation and the country's long-term development. Although our country's policy about strategic emerging industry has been issued for more than ten years, at present, the factual analysis and mechanism research of relevant industrial policies are still lacking. We need to fi gure out how to achieve industrial success and enterprise development through policy tools.

To sum up, this paper puts forward the following research questions: What are the conditions and mechanisms for the successful industrial policy of strategic emerging industries? Specifi cally, in our country, what kind of industrial policy is needed, what is the framework of the policy system, what is the effect of policy implementation, and how to produce better industrial policies? Taking the development policies of three industries (or technologies), i.e., display, integrated circuit, and new energy vehicles (Electric vehicle) as examples, this study discusses the conditions and mechanisms for the success of strategic emerging industrial policies. Based on the method of Industrial Chain and Value-Chain Based Holistic Policy Analysis (ICVC-HPA) we put forward, this paper attempts to use the ICVC policy matrix to sort out the relationship between policies and the ICVC of the enterprises, and evaluate the industrial development level and policy effects based on representative enterprises’ scale, technical level indicators, efficiency and their subsidy data. This helps us figure out what is the focus of these policies.  

Through practical research and case analysis, the study finds that firstly, industrial policy is the product of interaction between government and market and a variety of factors under certain development conditions in order to promote the development and structural upgrading of specific industries. Secondly, policies and their combinations including objectives and tools should be designed and implemented based on policy objectives, the nature of policy tools, and the characteristics of the ICVC, and they should be dynamically adjusted in due course. Thirdly, the interaction between government and enterprises is conducive and necessary to the formation and improvement of industrial policies. Fourthly, development policies of China’s three industries have been initially successful. Finally, the necessary condition for the success of the policy is that the key policy system can be reasonably integrated with the market mechanism and the needs of improvement for corporate capacity.

Compared with the existing studies, our paper contributes marginally as follows. Firstly, we find the three strategic emerging industry policies have all achieved basic success or preliminary success. The reason for the success of the policy is that the policy is forward-looking and feasible, which comes from the ambition of the state and local governments to catch up and develop, take advantage of late-mover advantages, and interact between the government and enterprises. Moreover, the combination of policies and market mechanisms make the policies succeed more easily. Finally, in terms of the method, the integrated policy analysis method using industry chain value chain analysis can help to carry out objective policy analysis, appropriate policy evaluation and targeted policy design for different industrial chain value chain links. In total, this study provides inspiration for policy evaluation and related policy design for strategic emerging industries from the perspective of policy mechanism and government-enterprise interaction.

城市信用体系建设是评估当地市场经济成熟和发展程度的重要内容,也是推动经济高质量发展的重要组成部分。本文以社会信用体系建设示范城市为准自然实验,基于2003～2018年地级市数据,使用双重差分方法研究城市信用体系建设对创业水平的影响,研究结果表明:第一,城市信用体系建设使城市的创业水平提高6%左右。第二,城市信用体系建设有助于改善营商环境和缓解融资约束,进而提高城市创业水平。第三,在宗族文化和儒家文化较强的地区,城市信用体系建设对创业的影响更大,呈现出宗族文化和儒家文化对城市信用体系的互补效应。城市信用体系与市场正式制度具有替代作用,市场化水平越低的地区,城市信用体系建设的创业效应越大。第四,知识密集型行业和初创企业以及现有企业平均规模小的城市的创业水平受城市信用体系建设的影响更大。本研究有利于增进对创业影响因素的认知,揭示社会信用体系建设对激发创业活力的经济意义。

碳转移是指全部隐含碳基于经济贸易所发生的排放转移现象。厘清经济增长对碳排放上升作用的具体路径是实现“双碳”目标的重要保证,但动态碳转移问题的存在使得节能减排政策的有效性和公平性受到挑战。据此,本文基于地区异质性和区域不平衡的视角,首先运用基于多区域投入产出表的结构分解分析方法测算经济增长的技术效应、结构效应和规模效应对全国和地区层面的碳排放增长的总效应。然后参考空间计量模型溢出效应的设定,通过改进结构分解技术来量化经济增长引致的区域间动态碳转移问题。本文主要研究发现,技术进步是抑制全国碳排放上升的重要因素(-29.54%),而规模效应在碳排放增长中起决定性作用(59.80%)。整个研究期内经济增长引致的动态碳转移占碳排放总量的58.17%;区域层面上,动态碳转移总量与经济规模呈正相关,污染天堂假说可以解释不同区域动态碳转移的非均衡性;从地区异质性视角来看,重工业发达地区经济结构优化有助于缓解动态碳转移现象,而绝大多数地区经济规模的扩张是动态碳转移产生的根源。本文研究为实现节能减排目标、构建统一碳市场提供了参考。

本文基于2010年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,研究生育政策、兄弟姐妹数量对个人创业行为的影响。为克服内生性带来的偏误,本文以独生子女政策时期征收的社会抚养费为工具变量进行2SLS估计,同时基于我国生育制度背景设计了拐点回归估计局部因果效应。实证结果表明,独生子女创业的概率显著低于非独生子女,兄弟姐妹数量的增加对个人的创业决策存在显著的积极影响。进一步,本文发现拥有更多兄弟姐妹的创业者,其创业表现更优,具体体现在:创业经营项目数量更多、经营时间更长、雇佣员工的概率更高及创业失败的概率更低。另外,本文还发现兄弟姐妹的行政管理职务对个人创业的积极影响更大,但并未发现性别对个人创业影响的显著差异。机制分析表明,独生子女政策提高了个人的受教育水平,高受教育水平群体创业的可能性较小;兄弟姐妹数量的减少削弱了其风险分担功能,从而抑制了个人创业。当前鼓励生育的政策,有望在未来提高个人创业参与度及优化创业表现。

消费中心(城市)是中国特色的经济概念。可以预见,如同我国生产中心的发展,带动形成强大的国内生产供给体系,我国消费中心的发展,也将带动形成强大的国内消费市场体系,促进国内经济大循环。随着国际消费中心城市在我国开始试点,未来中国各省份围绕消费中心的竞争必定越来越激烈。作为一项大的消费经济、区域经济、宏观经济、世界经济政策举措,消费中心有着其内在的促内循环机制,具体包括通过提升区域消费动能加速内循环的动力机制、通过延展区域消费容量扩大内循环的扩容机制、通过强化区域消费供给能力做强内循环的消费供给机制、通过扩充区域消费资源夯实内循环的资源基础机制、通过提高区域消费品质升级内循环的内涵深化机制、通过多样化区域消费产品体系完备内循环的外延扩展机制。无论是对于消费经济发展、区域经济发展,还是对于内需刺激、宏观调控、国际经济协作,这些机制都具有重要意义,需要完善相关配套政策。

数字经济与实体经济的深度融合冲击着劳动力市场。为考察企业数字化转型的就业效应及影响机制,本文使用2003～2019年中国上市公司面板数据,在归纳企业数字化转型阶段特征的基础上,通过文本分析方法对企业数字化转型进行测度后展开实证研究。研究发现,企业数字化转型能够显著扩大企业的员工规模,核心结论在经过一系列稳健性和内生性检验后依然成立。影响机制分析表明,企业数字化转型存在宏观提振效应;后发优势作用于企业数字化转型影响就业的过程;企业数字化转型能够提高生产率、促进创新和推动规模增长,从而促进员工规模增长。本文验证了技能偏向性与常规偏向性假设的成立,并发现行业、数字技术、区域及与中心城市距离存在异质性影响。本研究为数字经济新发展格局下中国推动就业扩容提质提供了相应启示。

Over the past several years, China’s OFDI has increased signifi cantly. According to the 2019 Statistical Bulletin of China’s Foreign Direct Investment, China’s OFDI increased to US$1.98 trillion, ranking 3rd globally. OFDI can help enterprises to improve their technology, avoid trade barriers and make use of foreign resources. Many scholars studied OFDI and found that several factors can promote OFDI, such as minimum wage, domestic system, productivity and so on. With China’s economic development, the RMB has seen consistent appreciation over the years. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the exchange rate between USD and RMB dropped from 8.277 in 2001 to 6.897 in 2019. As one of the important ways to utilize international resources, OFDI profoundly affects the development of enterprises. At the same time, the RMB exchange rate measures the relative prices of goods and factors between China and other

countries. It presents the cost changes of Chinese enterprises’ investment in the international market and plays an important role in OFDI decisions. With the implementation of exchange rate reform, the RMB exchange rate has moved more frequently and market-oriented since 2005. In this circumstance, it is necessary to analyze the impact of RMB appreciation on enterprises’ OFDI.

We analyze the impact of changes in the exchange rate on OFDI theoretically and empirically. Drawing on the research of Fan et al. (2018) and Tian and Yu (2020), we fi nd that the appreciation of the local currency decreases the threshold for OFDI and promotes OFDI. In addition, appreciation of the local currency expands the profit difference between OFDI and export, which increases the potential for enterprises to conduct OFDI, especially for enterprises with low productivity. Then, we constructed a comprehensive database using data from the “List of Overseas Investment Enterprises (Institutions)” provided by the Ministry of Commerce of China, the China customs database, and the Annual Survey of Industrial Firms (ASIF). Using the method of Xu et al. (2016), we constructed city-level effective exchange rates. After controlling fi xed effects and city-level and enterprise-level control variables, we estimated the effect of the exchange rate on China’s OFDI empirically. We found that every 1% RMB appreciation led to a 0.0102 increase in OFDI during the period 2001–2012. As ASIF only covers large-scale industrial enterprises and cannot fully illustrate all the behavior of all Chinese enterprises, we estimated the effect of the exchange rate on the amount of provincial OFDI using the “List of Overseas Investment Enterprises (Institutions),” which contains the full OFDI records. Then, we found that for every 10% RMB appreciation, there was a 0.004% increase in the provincial OFDI number, further consolidating our conclusion.  

Compared with previous studies, our study makes the following contributions. First, different from previous studies that analyzed the effect of the effective exchange rate at the macro or enterprise level, we constructed city-level effective export and import exchange rates and examined the effect of exchange rate on OFDI. Compared to national exchange rates, our data provides more city information. Meanwhile, our exchange rates are less susceptible to industry chain effects than firm-level exchange rates. Due to the existence of the industrial chain, the production and business activities of enterprises tend to be affected by upstream and downstream enterprises. The effect of exchange rates on OFDI in upstream and downstream enterprises may also indirectly affect enterprises’ OFDI behavior. Second, unlike previous micro-level studies that only focused on manufacturing enterprises, we analyzed the impact of RMB appreciation on all OFDI records. Therefore, compared with other research, our research is more comprehensive and representative.

实现绿色经济高质量发展是中国向世界作出的庄严承诺,也是中国经济长期高速发展的必然选择。党的二十大报告指出实现碳达峰碳中和是一场广泛而深刻的经济社会系统性变革,因此,健全碳排放权市场交易制度成为推动经济发展方式绿色低碳转型的一项制度创新,需借碳市场之力,下活减碳这盘棋。如何确保碳交易具有数量效应和质量效应的双重效果,促进中国以实现“双碳”目标为导向的高质量发展,迫切需要进行相关路径的研究。本文选取2004～2019年中国30个省域的面板数据,从环境、经济、技术三个维度构建连续双重差分模型,综合运用碳排放强度、生产总值平减指数、绿色全要素生产率等指标探究碳交易政策的有效性,并通过有调节的中介效应检验方法,验证低碳减排技术作为碳交易与经济发展的中介效应特征,构建碳交易政策评价与实施效果的市场发展体系。研究发现,碳交易政策是实现国家碳减排目标的有效市场化手段,在刺激试点地区产生“创新补偿”效应的同时实现了宏观层面社会资源的有效配置,但存在地区异质性,且在技术效应方面减排主体生产效率提升但并没有实质性扭转落后的生产方式,仍需多手段并行推动中国绿色可持续性发展。研究创新在于构建环境、经济、技术多维度碳交易市场评价体系,结合考虑碳市场规模及活跃度的连续双重差分模型评价碳排放交易试点的实施效果,并加入产业结构、能源消费结构等作为调节变量,解读碳交易政策对地区的深度影响。从碳交易市场本身的规模和活跃程度等因素来评价区域环境、经济和技术的影响并探究其内在推动力尤为重要,对相关问题的研究和探讨,对于中国实现“双碳”目标、推进全国碳交易市场建设具有现实意义。

本文测度中国长期代际收入流动性的变动趋势,并探讨其背后的成因。基于CHIP与CHNS数据,使用多种测度方法得出我国1960～1990年出生子代代际收入流动水平变动趋势的一致性结论,并通过Blanden分解法和反事实分析法,从微观与宏观两个维度探讨我国代际收入流动变动的原因。研究发现:第一,1960～1990年出生子代的代际收入流动性呈递增趋势;第二,家庭财富资本对代际收入流动的贡献率最高,人力资本则呈逐年递增趋势,社会资本的贡献率则表现为先增后减的倒“U”型特征,上述三种传递机制对代际收入弹性系数的贡献率逐年递增,由1960～1964年出生子代的20.73%提升至1980～1984年出生子代的57.46%;第三,更高速的经济增长与更包容的收入分配方式能够促进代际收入流动水平的提高。以多种测度方法得出我国出生队列的代际收入流动变动趋势的稳健性结论,并分析我国代际收入流动性发生趋势变动的原因。为我国阻断代际贫困陷阱、实现共同富裕目标提供新的经验和政策支撑。

数字经济与实体经济的深度融合冲击着劳动力市场。为考察企业数字化转型的就业效应及影响机制,本文使用2003～2019年中国上市公司面板数据,在归纳企业数字化转型阶段特征的基础上,通过文本分析方法对企业数字化转型进行测度后展开实证研究。研究发现,企业数字化转型能够显著扩大企业的员工规模,核心结论在经过一系列稳健性和内生性检验后依然成立。影响机制分析表明,企业数字化转型存在宏观提振效应;后发优势作用于企业数字化转型影响就业的过程;企业数字化转型能够提高生产率、促进创新和推动规模增长,从而促进员工规模增长。本文验证了技能偏向性与常规偏向性假设的成立,并发现行业、数字技术、区域及与中心城市距离存在异质性影响。本研究为数字经济新发展格局下中国推动就业扩容提质提供了相应启示。

在经济新常态的背景下,寻找新的增长方式是中国经济面临的难题,智慧城市试点为提升中国经济可持续发展能力提供了新的路径。本文将2012～2014年国家智慧城市试点作为准自然实验,采用校准后的NPP-VIIRS类夜间灯光数据来衡量经济增长水平,基于2005～2019年县域面板数据,使用双重差分方法评估智慧城市试点对县域经济增长的影响。研究结果表明,相对于没有智慧城市试点的地区,智慧城市试点能显著提高县域经济增长水平;智慧城市试点通过提高当地的投资水平与全要素生产率来促进经济增长,但对改善产业结构并无显著作用。空间双重差分的研究结果表明,智慧城市试点促进经济增长并非源于对周边地区资源的汲取,相反对邻近地区经济增长具有正向溢出效应。政府拥有的经济权力和初始条件会影响试点的效果,智慧城市试点对县级市和东部地区经济发展的促进作用要远大于普通县和中西部地区,但不同县域的经济均受益于智慧城市试点。

在世界百年未有之大变局和中华民族伟大复兴的战略全局背景下，中 国经济从总量、结构到内涵都发生了历史性变革，取得了历史性成就。在 中国经济跨入高质量发展阶段，清晰地刻画出经济增长的路径和机制、共 同富裕的实践方向和方法以及经济协调发展机制等十分必要。相应地，数 量经济学科研究也需要新范式、新理念和新思路，为世界大变局下中国经 济发展中面临的实际问题和方针政策提供科学评估和明确指引。具体而言， 针对经济发展问题的解读与剖析，包含不确定性背景下中国的经济金融协 调稳定与可持续发展、经济高质量发展下的创新要素配置、收入不平等与 经济增长的关系、中国长期稳定发展的世界意义、世界大变局下我国区域 经济高质量发展的战略方向等诸多实践问题，针对数量经济学科深化研究 和方式方法创新，则包含了海量数据特征与数量经济学研究的融合、数量 经济学科研究范式的变革以及与其他学科的融合发展。研究场景、数据特 征和学科知识框架的延伸，为当前数量经济学科发展和研究拓展提供了契 机，也提出了挑战。 在此背景下，2022年7月9日吉林大学数量经济研究中心和山东工商学 院在山东烟台共同主办了“2022年第十一届数量经济学国际学术会议—— 世界大变局下中国经济发展的重大理论与现实问题 世界大变局下中国经济发展的重大理论与现实问题”高峰论坛，邀请相关 领域的资深专家学者围绕各自研究领域进行主题发言报告。与会专家的发 言报告和研讨为探寻世界大变局下中国经济高质量发展的阶段特征与协调 发展机制、共同富裕的实现途径以及解决经济发展过程中的其他重大现实 问题提供了新理念，也为数量经济学科的研究范式调整、研究方法创新以 及与其他学科的融合发展提供了新思路。